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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $554 in 24h volume, and $4.5K in liquidity.
Probability
8%
24h Volume
$554
Liquidity
$4.5K
This market asks whether the film "Obsession" will take in less than $21 million at the domestic box office during its fourth weekend. Because the resolution depends on a specific weekend gross rather than a critic score or audience reaction, the key issue is how much the movie can hold after its first few weeks in theaters.
The outcome is tied to the 3-day weekend of June 5 to June 7, as reported on The Numbers page for "Obsession" under its Box Office tab. The market resolves to Yes if the final domestic weekend gross is below $21 million, and No if it reaches $21 million or higher; if the reported figure falls exactly between two bracketed values, the higher bracket is used. The rules also say that if final data is still unclear, the market stays open until both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo confirm finalized figures, with a fallback source only if no final data appears by June 14, 2026.
Weekend box office can be uncertain because a movie’s fourth-weekend performance depends on theater counts, weekday holdover strength, and how quickly audience interest fades. "Obsession" matters here because the title sets a clear numerical threshold that can be checked against a single official-style weekend revenue figure, which makes the question easy to state but still uncertain until final grosses are posted. Readers are essentially watching whether the film’s fourth weekend ends up comfortably below the cutoff or holds up enough to cross it.
The main price mover is any change in how "Obsession" is tracking on the weekend box office pages, especially the gap between early estimates and final reported figures. If Thursday previews or Friday numbers suggest a stronger-than-expected weekend, the chance of finishing at or above $21 million could rise; if the film softens through Saturday and Sunday, the under-$21 million outcome becomes more likely. Finalization from The Numbers, and then confirmation from Box Office Mojo if needed, is especially important because this market does not settle on estimates.
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 8% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, check the final 3-day weekend figure on The Numbers rather than early studio estimates or casual box office chatter. The resolution depends on the "Daily Box Office Performance" entries on the movie’s The Numbers page, and the rules specifically say to use the finalized 3-day weekend total for June 5 to June 7. If there is any ambiguity about whether the number is final, the market remains open until both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo have confirmed the figure, so the exact finalized bracket is the detail to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $554 in 24h volume, and $4.5K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
8%
No
92%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 5 - June 7) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 8%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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