culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 94%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $2.3K in liquidity.
Probability
94%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$2.3K
This market asks whether Olivia Rodrigo will appear at No. 1 on Spotify’s U.S. Top 50 chart at any point during June. It is a straightforward test of chart performance, not of album sales or radio play, and it will be judged only by Spotify’s daily U.S. ranking for the month.
The question is whether any song credited to Olivia Rodrigo’s primary artist profile reaches the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart on any day in June. The market resolves to Yes if that happens even once during the month, and No if it never does. The end date shown is June 30, 2026, and the chart source of truth is Spotify’s own Top 50 - USA playlist.
Olivia Rodrigo is a major pop artist whose singles can move quickly on streaming platforms, but a #1 Spotify day is still a specific, short-lived outcome that depends on listening trends across the month. The uncertainty here is about whether one of her songs can rise above every other track on the U.S. Spotify chart during June, which may hinge on release timing, sustained fan streaming, and competition from other big releases. The market is pricing disagreement over whether her catalog has enough current momentum to claim the top spot at least once in that window.
A new single, a viral moment, an album-related surge, or especially strong streaming from an existing hit could make a June #1 more plausible. On the other hand, if another major pop or hip-hop release dominates Spotify’s U.S. chart, or if Olivia Rodrigo’s streaming stays spread across multiple songs instead of concentrating on one track, the chance of a No. 1 day falls. Because the rule looks only at the daily Spotify U.S. chart, even a brief one-day spike can matter a lot.
The current market price implies roughly a 94% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should watch the Spotify Top 50 - USA playlist for each day in June, since that is the exact source that decides the market. The key detail is that only the listed artist’s primary profile counts; a feature or collaboration under someone else’s profile will not qualify. Before resolution, verify the daily #1 entry, the artist credit on that track, and the month boundary in Eastern Time, since the market only covers June and not any days before or after it.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 94%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $2.3K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
94.5%
No
5.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 94%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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