
--
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $50.4 in 24h volume, and $219.5 in liquidity.
Probability
30%
24h Volume
$50.4
Liquidity
$219.5
This market asks whether Perplexity’s private valuation will reach at least $19.5 billion before the end of June 30, 2026. The reference point is not a rumor or headline estimate, but the valuation level reported in Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price data, which makes the resolution depend on a specific published source.
Perplexity is the AI search company, and this market tracks whether its private-market valuation ever hits the stated threshold during the resolution window. The key measurement is the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, and the market can resolve “Yes” if any relevant published NPM valuation at or above $19.5 billion appears between market creation and June 30, 2026. If Perplexity goes public before then, the rules also allow the official IPO or direct-listing price and the company’s public market value to count.
Perplexity has been one of the closely watched private AI companies, so its implied value can move as investors reassess demand, growth prospects, and the broader appetite for AI names. The uncertainty here is straightforward: the market is asking whether the company’s valuation will cross a specific line in the available data, not whether it is generally “doing well.” Traders are pricing the chance that a published NPM valuation, or an IPO-style pricing event, reaches the threshold before the deadline.
The biggest price moves usually come from concrete valuation updates: a new NPM Price reading, a fundraising announcement that implies a higher valuation, or a public offering that sets a price above or below $19.5 billion. Changes in the company’s public status also matter, because the rules extend to an IPO or direct listing and to the resulting public market capitalization. If no fresh valuation data appears, the market may stay anchored to the last available published number and drift mainly on expectations about whether a new figure will arrive before June 30.
Related markets

--
24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 30% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the NPM Price publication schedule closely, since NPM data is released for trading days only and is posted at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. The important cutoff is whether relevant data covering the period arrives by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, with a backup window extending to 11:59 PM ET on July 4 if necessary. The source of truth is the published NPM data, plus any official IPO or direct-listing pricing and public market capitalization if Perplexity goes public; if coverage stops or data is missing, the market rules specify how the remaining information is used, so the exact publication status is the main thing to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $50.4 in 24h volume, and $219.5 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
29.5%
No
70.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 30%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

+12.3%
24h Vol
$167.1K
Liquidity
$177K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$78K
Liquidity
$54.9K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$33.2K
Liquidity
$125.7K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.2%
24h Vol
$18.9K
Liquidity
$28.6K
Spread
1%
Live
View market
+0.9%
24h Vol
$27.8K
Liquidity
$15.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market