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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $115.6 in 24h volume, and $168.1 in liquidity.
Probability
14%
24h Volume
$115.6
Liquidity
$168.1
This market asks whether Perplexity’s private valuation will reach at least $20 billion before the end of June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the contract is tied to a specific, rule-based valuation source rather than vague sentiment, so the result depends on how Perplexity is priced in official NPM data or, later, in any public listing mechanism.
The event is about Perplexity, the AI search and answer company, and whether its private market valuation will hit the $20 billion threshold. The market resolves to Yes if Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price shows a valuation at or above that level on any date from market creation through June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. If Perplexity goes public through an IPO or direct listing before then, the rule also allows the official offering price and the company’s public market value to count.
Perplexity’s valuation can change as private secondary trading updates, fundraising terms shift, or the company moves closer to a public listing. That leaves room for disagreement about whether the valuation will cross a round-number milestone like $20 billion by the deadline, especially if the company stays private and only NPM data is available. Readers following this market are really watching whether the company’s official pricing path can clear that threshold in time.
The biggest price movers are new NPM valuation prints, fresh financing terms, or any sign that a sale of shares implies a higher company value. A reported IPO or direct listing plan would matter too, because the rules say the official offering price and post-listing public market cap can be used if that happens before June 30, 2026. Conversely, if NPM stops publishing Perplexity data or if no qualifying valuation reaches $20 billion before the deadline, that pushes the market toward No under the contract rules.
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24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 14% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market, which is updated only on trading days and appears the following business day at 1:00 PM ET. Readers should check whether the valuation crosses $20 billion in any published NPM print before the deadline, and whether any IPO or direct listing occurs, since that changes what data can count. The resolution window also matters: if all business-day data is not yet available by July 1, 2026, the market can stay open until July 4, 2026, and if NPM stops covering Perplexity, the contract falls back to the data available up to that point and any later public-market valuation if applicable.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $115.6 in 24h volume, and $168.1 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
14.5%
No
85.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 14%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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