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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $21B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $487.4 in 24h volume, and $214.2 in liquidity.
Probability
16%
24h Volume
$487.4
Liquidity
$214.2
This market asks whether Perplexity’s private valuation will reach at least $21 billion before the end of June 30, 2026, using the company’s NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market as the official reference. It is a focused test of whether a fast-growing AI company can print a higher private-market value within the stated window, not a guess about its business quality or long-term prospects.
Perplexity is the company at the center of the market, and the key number is its private-market valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM). The market resolves “Yes” if an NPM Price for any trading day between market creation and June 30, 2026 reaches or exceeds $21 billion; otherwise it resolves “No.” The end date on the page is July 1, 2026 at 12:00 UTC, but the resolution language gives a July 4, 2026 fallback window if some NPM data is delayed.
Perplexity is a closely watched AI startup, so a valuation threshold like $21 billion can matter because private-market prices often reflect investor enthusiasm, fundraising terms, and expectations about growth. The uncertainty here is whether any official NPM print within the period will cross that line, which can be affected by new secondary trading data, a financing round, or a change in how the company is valued in private markets. The market is pricing a disagreement over whether that headline valuation is reachable before the deadline.
The biggest price movers are any newly published NPM valuation prints for Perplexity, since the contract settles on those published prices rather than on rumor or media commentary. A financing round, employee secondary transaction, or a formal update that changes the NPM-reported valuation could push the market toward Yes if it reaches $21 billion or above. If Perplexity were to complete an IPO or direct listing before June 30, the rules also allow the official offer price and then the public market capitalization to matter, which could change the settlement path.
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24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 16% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the exact NPM valuation data, because the market depends on whether NPM publishes a qualifying price and on which trading day it applies to. The rules also include special handling if NPM stops publishing, if some business dates have not yet been covered by July 1, 2026, or if Perplexity goes public before the period ends. The main ambiguity to watch is timing: NPM prices are released once daily for trading days only, so the relevant valuation may appear after the underlying business date rather than on it.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $21B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $487.4 in 24h volume, and $214.2 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
15.5%
No
84.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 16%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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