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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 12%, $1.6K in 24h volume, and $264.8 in liquidity.
Probability
12%
24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$264.8
This market asks whether Perplexity’s private-market valuation will reach at least $22.5 billion by June 30, 2026, based on the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market. Because the page is tied to a specific valuation threshold and a fixed date, it is best read as a check on whether Perplexity’s reported private value ever crosses that line during the measurement window.
Perplexity is the AI search company, and the market uses its private valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM). The key test is simple: if any NPM Price between market creation and June 30, 2026 reaches or exceeds $22.5 billion, the market resolves “Yes”; otherwise it resolves “No.” NPM publishes trading-day data once daily at 1:00 PM ET the following calendar day, and the rules also spell out how the market would be handled if NPM stops publishing, or if Perplexity completes an IPO or direct listing before the deadline.
The uncertainty here is about whether Perplexity’s reported valuation will be strong enough, and early enough, to clear a specific threshold before the cutoff. Readers may care because private-company valuations can move with new financing rounds, secondary-market activity, or a public listing, and this market is asking for a precise yes-or-no outcome rather than a broad view of company momentum. The disagreement being priced is not about Perplexity’s business in general, but about whether the official valuation data will ever hit the stated level during the defined period.
The biggest price moves would come from an NPM Price update that lands near or above $22.5 billion, since that is the direct resolution trigger. A new financing round, a meaningful change in secondary-market pricing, or an IPO/direct listing would also matter because the rules explicitly allow official IPO or listing pricing, and later public-market capitalization, to count. If no relevant NPM data appears for a while, traders may focus on whether the company remains on track to publish a valuation before the deadline or whether coverage changes under the fallback rules.
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24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 12% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, the most important thing to verify is the source of truth: the NPM Price for Perplexity, not informal press reports or guesswork about private value. Readers should watch the publication timing carefully, since NPM data is published only on trading days and appears the following calendar day at 1:00 PM ET, with a possible extension if data is missing near the end of the window. It is also worth checking whether Perplexity has gone public or whether NPM has stopped publishing relevant data, because the market rules specify alternate resolution paths in those cases.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 12%, $1.6K in 24h volume, and $264.8 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
11.5%
No
88.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 12%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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