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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $44 in 24h volume, and $598.6 in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$44
Liquidity
$598.6
This market asks whether Perplexity’s private-company valuation will reach at least $25 billion before the end of June 30, 2026. It is anchored to a specific data source rather than rumor or general company chatter: the valuation must appear in Nasdaq Private Market’s published NPM Price data, or be picked up later through an IPO/direct listing rule if that happens.
Perplexity is the AI search and answer engine company, and this contract is focused on whether its official private-market valuation crosses the $25 billion threshold during the measurement window. The key reference point is the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, which is published only on trading days and updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET the next calendar day. The market resolves Yes if any eligible NPM valuation at or above $25 billion appears between market creation and June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves No, with additional rules covering delayed publication, a possible stop in NPM coverage, or an IPO/direct listing.
Perplexity’s valuation has been a subject of attention because AI companies can move quickly from private-market funding rounds to much larger headline valuations, and those figures are not always obvious from public reporting. The uncertainty here is not simply whether the company is growing, but whether an official valuation source will print a number at or above the stated threshold before the deadline. The market is pricing disagreement about both the pace of Perplexity’s value changes and whether the relevant NPM data will show a qualifying price in time.
The biggest price movers are concrete valuation events that affect the NPM Price: a new private financing, a secondary transaction that changes the reported price, or any official update that shows Perplexity at or above $25 billion. An IPO or direct listing would also matter because the rules explicitly allow the official offer price and later public-market capitalization to count. By contrast, ordinary product announcements, partnerships, or user-growth headlines would only matter indirectly unless they are reflected in a published valuation update.
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24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the actual NPM Price entries, not just headlines about fundraising, because the contract resolves from the published Nasdaq Private Market data. The important timing detail is that NPM values are published for trading days only, so a late-June move may not appear until the next day’s 1:00 PM ET update. Also check the fallback rules: if NPM stops publishing or if Perplexity goes public, the contract can still resolve from the last relevant NPM data, the IPO/direct listing price, or the company’s public market capitalization through June 30, 2026.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $44 in 24h volume, and $598.6 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
9.5%
No
90.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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