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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $628 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Probability
8%
24h Volume
$628
Liquidity
$1.1K
This market asks whether Perplexity, the AI search company, will reach a private-market valuation of $30 billion or more before the end of June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on official valuation data rather than headlines alone, and the threshold is close enough to matter if the company’s funding, trading, or listing situation changes.
The event is about Perplexity’s valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), which publishes NPM Prices for trading days only and updates them once daily on the following calendar day. The market resolves “Yes” if any NPM valuation from the creation date through June 30, 2026 reaches at least $30 billion; otherwise it resolves “No.” If Perplexity goes public through an IPO or direct listing before then, the market can also use the valuation implied by the official listing price and, afterward, the company’s public market capitalization through the deadline.
Perplexity has been a closely watched private company because its value can move based on funding rounds, employee-share trading, or a public listing, and private valuations are not always obvious from day to day. The uncertainty here is not just whether the business grows, but whether an official valuation source will print a number high enough to cross the $30 billion line before the deadline. Readers are effectively weighing whether the company’s next major pricing event, if any, will be strong enough to meet that threshold.
The market can move if NPM publishes a new valuation for Perplexity that is near or above $30 billion, since that is the direct resolution trigger. A disclosed financing round, a secondary-market price update, or a public listing at a price that implies a valuation at or above the cutoff would all be relevant. It can also move if Perplexity appears likely to list publicly before June 30, because the rules allow the official IPO or direct listing price, and then the public market cap, to count toward resolution.
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24h Vol
$538.8K
Liquidity
$260.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 8% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key items to verify are the exact NPM Price published for Perplexity, the date of that print, and whether it reaches the $30 billion threshold at any point in the covered period. Readers should also watch for the special rule about late-arriving data: if NPM has not posted all business-day data by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, the market may stay open until July 4, 2026 and then resolve from the data available. If NPM stops publishing or Perplexity goes public, the resolution rules shift, so the official source of truth and the timing of any IPO or direct listing matter more than informal market chatter.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $628 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
7.5%
No
92.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 8%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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