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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $115.8 in 24h volume, and $122.3 in liquidity.
Probability
16%
24h Volume
$115.8
Liquidity
$122.3
This market asks whether Perplexity, the AI search company, will reach a private-market valuation of at least $17 billion by June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on an official valuation source, not rumor or headline chatter, and the threshold is close enough to make any new pricing update meaningful.
The event is tied to Perplexity’s private-market valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) using its NPM Price. The market resolves “Yes” if any NPM valuation published between market creation and June 30, 2026 meets or exceeds $17 billion; otherwise it resolves “No.” If Perplexity goes public before then, the rules also allow the official IPO or direct-listing price, and the public market capitalization afterward, to count in the resolution.
Perplexity is a fast-moving private company whose value can change as investors reassess growth, competition, and the prospects for AI-driven search. The uncertainty here is not whether the company is important, but whether a formal pricing event will lift its measured valuation to the $17 billion mark before the deadline. Readers following this market are essentially watching whether the company’s next official price reference crosses that line.
The most direct catalyst is a new NPM Price publication that shows Perplexity at or above $17 billion. A financing round, updated secondary pricing, or any IPO/direct-listing process would also matter because the rules explicitly allow those official price signals to determine the outcome. If no new valuation is published, the market will be driven more by the absence of a qualifying update than by broad speculation about the company.
The current market price implies roughly a 16% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the NPM Price, which is published only on trading days and released once daily at 1:00 PM ET the following calendar day. Readers should check whether NPM has published all relevant business dates by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, because the market can remain open through July 4 if data is still outstanding. The main ambiguity to watch is whether Perplexity stays private, publishes a qualifying NPM valuation, or completes an IPO/direct listing that introduces an official public-market reference under the rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $115.8 in 24h volume, and $122.3 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
15.5%
No
84.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 16%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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