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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 60%, $64.2 in 24h volume, and $161.5 in liquidity.
Probability
60%
24h Volume
$64.2
Liquidity
$161.5
This market asks whether Perplexity’s private-company valuation, as tracked by Nasdaq Private Market’s daily NPM Price, will reach at least $17.5 billion at any point before June 30, 2026. It is a straightforward threshold question tied to an official valuation data series, so the main focus is whether any published NPM reading crosses that line before the deadline.
Perplexity is the named company in the title, and the key trigger is its private market valuation, not a revenue figure, user count, or public stock price. The market resolves "Yes" if the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC shows a valuation at or above $17.5 billion for any date from market creation through June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves "No." If Perplexity goes public before then, the rules also allow the market to use the valuation implied by the IPO or direct listing price, and then the public market capitalization after listing.
The uncertainty is about how Nasdaq Private Market will value Perplexity over the rest of the period and whether any later update, financing mark, or public listing pushes the company over the stated threshold. Readers may care because Perplexity is a closely watched AI company and private valuations can move with fresh funding terms, changing market sentiment, or a transition into public markets. The market is effectively pricing whether the company can clear $17.5 billion on the official data source before the cutoff.
A new NPM Price update is the most direct driver, since the market turns on whether any published valuation meets or exceeds $17.5 billion. A private funding round, a repricing event, or a public listing at a valuation above the threshold could all affect the outcome under the stated rules. The price can also react to the absence of new data, since the rules include fallback timing if NPM has not published all business-day figures by early July 2026.
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24h Vol
$538.1K
Liquidity
$258.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 60% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The source of truth here is Nasdaq Private Market’s published NPM Price, updated once daily on trading days and posted the following calendar day at 1:00 PM ET. Readers should check whether any reported valuation from market creation through June 30, 2026 reaches the $17.5 billion cutoff, and also watch the special handling if NPM stops publishing or if Perplexity completes an IPO or direct listing. The market can remain open into early July if needed for missing business-day data, so the exact publication schedule and any public-listing event are the main details to verify before resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 60%, $64.2 in 24h volume, and $161.5 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
60%
No
40%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 60%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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