economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $125.4K in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$125.4K
Liquidity
$1.1M
This market asks a very specific question: will Stephen Smith be the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election and ultimately take office? Because the United States chooses its president through a national election with a defined certification and inauguration process, the answer may not be settled immediately on Election Night. The market is anchored to the official 2028 election date, November 7, 2028, and the inauguration deadline of January 20, 2029 if the race is still unresolved by the major race-calling outlets.
The title names Stephen Smith as the candidate whose victory would resolve the market to Yes. Under the rules, the outcome is not based on polling or speculation; it resolves to the person who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, with the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC serving as the main sources for a race call. If those three outlets have not all called the race for the same candidate by Inauguration Day, the market falls back to whoever is actually inaugurated on January 20, 2029.
This market centers on whether Stephen Smith can emerge from a long and highly competitive presidential process, which includes primaries, party nominations, the general election, and the Electoral College. The uncertainty comes from the fact that presidential elections can hinge on a small number of battleground states, turnout, candidate selection, and whether the race is close enough to delay a clear call. Readers should treat this as a question about a single named person’s path to the White House, not a generic bet on party control or a broad election outcome.
Anything that changes Stephen Smith’s standing as a plausible presidential winner can move the market, especially formal steps like entering the race, securing a major nomination, winning primaries, or being chosen as a party’s standard-bearer. General election polling, debate performances, ballot access, major endorsements, campaign withdrawals by rivals, and official election results in the states that determine the Electoral College can all matter. Because the market resolves to the winner recognized by the named news sources or, failing that, the inaugurated president, late-breaking certification disputes or an unusually delayed count could also be relevant.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key things to verify are the exact resolution rules, the three named call sources, and the fallback to the inaugurated president if they do not agree by January 20, 2029. Readers should watch the official election calendar, the certified state and Electoral College results, and whether the major networks and AP have made a consistent call on the same candidate. One important ambiguity to keep in mind is that the title uses a specific person’s name, so if there are multiple people with that name, the market rules and context here are what determine the intended outcome, not the name alone.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $125.4K in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
1%
No
99.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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