finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$62.3K
Liquidity
$160.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 39%, $6.6K in 24h volume, and $629.8 in liquidity.
Probability
39%
24h Volume
$6.6K
Liquidity
$629.8
This market asks a simple but specific question: will Playboi Carti put out a new album by the end of 2026? It is worth watching because album release timing for a major artist often depends on official announcements, platform listings, and whether the project appears as a full studio release rather than a repackaging.
The title names Playboi Carti, the Atlanta rapper known for long gaps between major releases and for keeping project plans closely held. This market resolves “Yes” only if an officially released new album becomes available on streaming or download platforms between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT. The rules exclude live recordings, deluxe editions, re-releases, compilations, greatest hits, and similar altered versions unless at least half the tracks are previously unreleased.
There is real uncertainty here because the market is not asking whether Carti is active, teasing music, or appearing on features; it is asking for a qualifying album release within a fixed deadline. Fans and market participants may disagree over whether a project will arrive on time, and the market is pricing that disagreement around a narrow definition of what counts as an album. The long runway to the deadline also leaves room for official releases that can still change the outcome.
A formal album announcement, a new release appearing on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, or Deezer, or an official pre-save or release-date listing could push this market higher if it looks like a qualifying full album. By contrast, posts about snippets, singles, merch drops, tour activity, or guest appearances would matter only if they are paired with a clear album release. A release that turns out to be a deluxe edition, compilation, or other non-qualifying package would not resolve this market to Yes unless the tracklist meets the 50% new-material rule.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$62.3K
Liquidity
$160.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 39% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the actual album listing on the official platforms named in the rules, because those are the primary sources of truth. Readers should check the exact release date, the album label, and the tracklist makeup to see whether it is a genuinely new album or one of the excluded formats. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, so anything after that time does not count, and ambiguous labeling will be judged in the order of Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, then Deezer.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 39%, $6.6K in 24h volume, and $629.8 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
38.5%
No
61.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 39%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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