economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $140.8K in 24h volume, and $137.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$140.8K
Liquidity
$137.6K
This market asks whether Rafael López Aliaga will be the winner of Peru’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to a major national vote scheduled for April 12, 2026, and it matters because Peru’s president is chosen through a two-round system if no candidate clears the first-round threshold.
The question is simple: will Rafael López Aliaga be the official winner of the next Peruvian presidential election? The market includes any required second round, so a victory can come from either the first round or a runoff, as long as López Aliaga is ultimately declared the winner. If the result is still not definitively known by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
Peru’s presidential contests often feature fragmented fields, making it uncertain who will emerge after the first vote and any runoff. López Aliaga is a prominent national political figure, so the market is really pricing whether he can turn that profile into an outright election win under Peru’s rules. The uncertainty is not just about candidacy, but about coalition-building, runoff dynamics, and the final official count.
Price moves will mainly come from official campaign developments that change López Aliaga’s path to victory: confirmation that he is running, changes in the candidate field, strong or weak first-round positioning, and any runoff matchups that appear more or less favorable. Endorsements, alliances, or withdrawals could matter if they reshape the second-round lineup. Because the market resolves on the elected winner rather than polling alone, official election steps and the final ONPE/JNE result are what ultimately matter most.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should watch the April 12, 2026 election date, whether a second round is needed, and the official candidate list as it solidifies. The key source of truth is the final result reported by Peru’s National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) and, if needed for disputes or confirmation, the National Jury of Elections (JNE). The main ambiguity risk is a delayed or contested result, since the market has a hard cutoff of October 31, 2026 if the winner is not definitively known by then.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $140.8K in 24h volume, and $137.6K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
-3%
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$574.6K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View market
+2.1%
24h Vol
$1.8M
Liquidity
$549.6K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
--
24h Vol
$703.8K
Liquidity
$185.3K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$243.3K
Liquidity
$613.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$93.7K
Liquidity
$358K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market