economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $70.9K in 24h volume, and $763.4K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$70.9K
Liquidity
$763.4K
This market asks whether Rahm Emanuel will become and accept the Democratic Party’s 2028 nominee for U.S. president. Emanuel is a long-time Democratic figure, known nationally as a former Chicago mayor, former White House chief of staff, and former U.S. ambassador to Japan, so the question is really whether he can turn that political resume into a presidential nomination. The market stays open until the 2028 nomination is settled, and the result is tied to official Democratic Party confirmation rather than campaign chatter.
The exact event being judged is simple: will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination and accept it? If he does, the market resolves to Yes; if he does not, it resolves to No. The description adds an important wrinkle: if the party replaces its nominee before Election Day, that later change does not alter the market’s outcome, and the resolution will rely on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
This market exists because a presidential nomination is a formal but still uncertain party decision, and Emanuel is not a default front-runner just by name recognition. Readers may care because the nomination process can shift quickly through endorsements, convention rules, delegate commitments, withdrawals, and replacement scenarios. The disagreement being priced here is not about whether Emanuel is a known national Democrat, but whether he can actually secure the party’s formal nomination in 2028.
Statements from Emanuel about running, endorsements from influential Democrats, and delegate or primary developments would be the most direct price movers. So would any official party changes to the nomination process, especially anything affecting how delegates are awarded, bound, or released. Because the resolution depends on official Democratic Party sources, announcements from the party or the convention about the nominee will matter far more than speculation or media discussion.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the key things to check are the official Democratic Party nomination process, the party’s final nominee announcement, and whether Emanuel has formally accepted the nomination. The deadline is the 2028 presidential cycle, with the listed end date of 2028-11-07, but the decisive moment is the party’s official nomination outcome, not Election Day itself. Readers should pay close attention to the resolution wording: a replacement nominee later in the race does not change the market, so the relevant question is who the party officially names and accepts as its 2028 nominee.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $70.9K in 24h volume, and $763.4K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
2.1%
No
98%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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