economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $39.2K in 24h volume, and $164.8K in liquidity.
Probability
17%
24h Volume
$39.2K
Liquidity
$164.8K
This market asks whether Renan Santos will be the official winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. Brazil’s presidential race matters because it is decided nationwide and can go to a runoff if no candidate wins outright in the first round, so the final result may not be clear on election day.
The event in question is Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026. The market resolves to the listed candidate who ultimately wins, and it explicitly counts any second round that may be needed to produce a final winner. If no result is known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other," and if there is any ambiguity, the official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) control.
There is uncertainty because presidential elections are competitive, and in Brazil the first round does not always settle the race. This market is pricing whether Renan Santos can go from being a named contender to the certified winner under Brazil’s election rules, which depends on ballot access, campaign strength, coalition-building, and how the runoff shakes out if one occurs.
Price can move if Renan Santos is formally registered as a candidate, wins party backing, or starts polling as a credible contender in the run-up to the election. It can also move with changes in the broader field, such as stronger or weaker rivals, alliance shifts before the first round, and any official election developments that clarify whether a second round will be needed.
The current market price implies roughly a 17% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore the market resolves, the key items to verify are the official election date, whether a runoff occurs, and the final certified winner reported by the TSE. Because the market says it follows a consensus of credible reporting unless there is ambiguity, the most important source of truth is the official Brazilian result, not early projections or incomplete vote counts. Readers should also watch the June 30, 2027 deadline, since the market has a backstop resolution to "Other" if the election outcome is still unresolved by then.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $39.2K in 24h volume, and $164.8K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
16.6%
No
83.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 17%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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