economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $136.4K in 24h volume, and $232.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$136.4K
Liquidity
$232.9K
This market asks whether Roberto Chiabra will emerge as the winner of Peru’s 2026 presidential election. Because Peru’s contest can go to a second round, the key question is not just how he performs in the first vote on April 12, 2026, but whether he ultimately secures the presidency under the official electoral process.
Roberto Chiabra is one named candidate in Peru’s next presidential race, and this market resolves to “Yes” only if he is the candidate officially recorded as the winner of the election. The description makes clear that any runoff counts, so a first-round lead would not be enough on its own if the presidency is decided later in a second round. If the result is still not definitive by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other” instead of waiting indefinitely.
Peru’s presidential elections can be complicated by multiple candidates, fragmented voting, and the possibility of a runoff, which leaves room for uncertainty about the final winner well before Election Day. This market is specifically about whether Chiabra can convert candidacy into a final victory, so it is pricing disagreement over his electoral strength, coalition prospects, and ability to survive the full election calendar. The fact that the market is narrowly focused on one candidate also means even small changes in candidacy status, alliances, or official vote totals can matter a lot.
Price moves are most likely to come from official campaign developments tied directly to Chiabra: confirmed candidacy status, ballot qualification, withdrawal, disqualification, or changes in who appears likely to advance to or win a runoff. Formal polling shifts, endorsements from major political blocs, and credible reporting on the shape of the field can also affect expectations because Peru’s presidential race is decided by the final certified winner, not by early momentum alone. Later on, ONPE and JNE results, especially if the race reaches a second round, will be the decisive events for resolution.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, readers should check the official election calendar, whether a second round is required, and the certified results from Peru’s ONPE and JNE, since those are the stated sources of truth if there is any ambiguity. The deadline matters too: if the winner is not definitively known by October 31, 2026, the market goes to “Other,” even if the election itself has already taken place. One practical ambiguity to watch is whether Chiabra is still an active, qualified candidate through the full process, because this market is about the named candidate winning the presidency, not simply appearing on the ballot.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $136.4K in 24h volume, and $232.9K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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