
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.7K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 63%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $16.7K in liquidity.
Probability
63%
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$16.7K
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 63%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $16.7K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Sep 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.7K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketProbability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 63%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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