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Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$49.6K
Liquidity
$273.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 38%, $3.9K in 24h volume, and $531.9 in liquidity.
Probability
38%
24h Volume
$3.9K
Liquidity
$531.9
This market asks whether the S&P 500 index will print a 1-minute candle with a low at or below 7,100 at any point before the June 2026 market close. Because the S&P 500 is a broad benchmark for U.S. large-cap stocks, even a brief intraday move can matter here, not just where the index finishes the month.
The title refers to the S&P 500, often shown on Yahoo Finance as ^GSPC, and the threshold is 7,100. The market resolves "Yes" if any regular-session 1-minute candle during the market window from creation through the final trading day of June 2026 has a recorded Low price at or below 7,100; otherwise it resolves "No." The source of truth is Yahoo Finance 1-minute data for SPX, and only regular trading hours count.
This market is about whether the index will ever touch a specific downside level before the end of June 2026, which is different from asking whether it will close below that level. That distinction matters because short-lived selloffs, opening gaps, and intraday volatility can trigger the threshold even if the broader trend later recovers. Readers may care because the S&P 500 is a widely watched gauge of equity sentiment, and 7,100 is a concrete level that frames a clear yes-or-no test.
Price can move if the S&P 500 approaches the 7,100 level during a sharp selloff, especially on a day with a major macro surprise, a central bank decision, or a broad risk-off move in U.S. equities. Because the rule keys off the intraday low on a 1-minute candle, a brief plunge during regular market hours can be enough to change the outcome even without a weak monthly close. Any sustained rally that keeps the index comfortably above the threshold will generally push the market toward "No," while a quick drawdown increases the chance of "Yes."
The current market price implies roughly a 38% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$49.6K
Liquidity
$273.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe key things to verify are the exact cutoff date and the data source. This market uses Yahoo Finance's 1-minute chart for ^GSPC and only counts candles during regular trading hours on the primary exchange, so after-hours moves, holidays, and maintenance breaks do not count. Because the threshold is based on the candle low rather than the close, readers should watch for any intraday print at or below 7,100 through the final trading day of June 2026, and also note that the title's "LOW" wording refers to that intraday low condition.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 38%, $3.9K in 24h volume, and $531.9 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
37.5%
No
62.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 38%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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