finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$58K
Liquidity
$159.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $48.8 in 24h volume, and $63 in liquidity.
Probability
32%
24h Volume
$48.8
Liquidity
$63
This market asks a simple question about Taylor Swift’s 2026 release schedule: will she officially release a new album before the end of the year? It matters because Swift is one of the most closely watched artists in pop music, and album rollout timing can move quickly from rumor to official announcement. The contract stays open through December 31, 2026, so the key issue is whether a qualifying album appears on major streaming or download platforms by then.
The event is about whether Taylor Swift releases a newly available album between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT. For this market, an “official release” means the album is available to stream or download, and live-event recordings do not count. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, greatest hits packages, or similar altered versions only count if at least half of the tracks have never been officially released in any format before that album.
The uncertainty here is not whether Taylor Swift is active as an artist, but whether she will choose to put out a qualifying album during 2026 and in what form. Fans and market watchers often debate timing because album cycles can depend on label strategy, touring, re-recording plans, or whether a project is treated as new material versus a repackaged release. The market is pricing disagreement about both the timing and the exact definition of what counts as an album release under the rules.
Any official announcement from Taylor Swift or her label about a 2026 album would be the clearest price mover, especially if it includes a release date or pre-save/pre-order page. A confirmed upload to Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, or Deezer would also be decisive, since those are the listed resolution sources. On the other hand, news about a reissue, deluxe edition, or live recording may matter less unless it meets the market’s 50% new-tracks threshold.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$58K
Liquidity
$159.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 32% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, readers should check whether any release is actually a new album under the contract’s definition, not just a special edition or catalog repackaging. The primary source of truth is the official streaming and download platforms, with Spotify checked first, then Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer if there is ambiguity about labeling. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, so a release in another time zone only counts if it is live by that cutoff in Los Angeles time.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $48.8 in 24h volume, and $63 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
31.5%
No
68.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 32%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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