Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026?

What this market is about

Team Falcons is the named Counter-Strike 2 team here, and the market resolves to Yes if that roster wins at least one tournament classified as S-Tier on Liquipedia between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event must be a concluded S-Tier tournament, and the description excludes online-only qualifiers and events that were downgraded before they began. If there is a co-winner situation, the market follows the listed alphabetic ordering rule on Liquipedia, and the primary source of truth is official tournament organizer results such as ESL, PGL, or BLAST.tv.

Why the market exists

Falcons are a prominent CS2 organization, and the question is whether they can turn that standing into a top finish at the highest tier of competition during the 2026 calendar year. Because elite CS2 events feature deep fields, changing schedules, and frequent roster or meta shifts, it is not obvious in advance whether Falcons will break through in a major title run or fall short across the year. The market is pricing that uncertainty around their ability to win at least one qualifying S-tier event before the deadline.

What can move the price

Results in the biggest LAN events will matter most, especially if Falcons reach finals, win playoff series, or collect a trophy at an S-tier tournament. Roster changes, stand-ins, player availability, and changes in team form can all affect expectations quickly, as can the game’s evolving patch or map pool if it favors or hurts their style. The schedule also matters: a strong run early in the year changes the market differently than a late surge when fewer qualifying events remain.

How to read the current probability