
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.6K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $390.3 in 24h volume, and $2.6K in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$390.3
Liquidity
$2.6K
This market asks whether the Bank of Russia will leave its key rate unchanged after its June 19, 2026 policy meeting. It is a focused way to track how investors and readers are weighing the central bank’s next step, especially because rate decisions in Russia can signal how officials see inflation, growth, and financial stability.
The event is the Bank of Russia’s June meeting on the key rate, with resolution tied to the official post-meeting announcement on June 19, 2026. A “Yes” outcome means the bank makes no change to the key rate compared with the level in place before the meeting; any move up or down would make the answer “No.” If the bank has not issued a decision by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market rules say it resolves to the “No change” bracket.
Central banks often face a narrow policy choice when inflation, currency pressures, and economic conditions are sending mixed signals, and Russia is no exception. Readers following this market are trying to judge whether policymakers will pause and hold steady, or whether they will use the June meeting to signal a shift in stance. The uncertainty here is not about whether the meeting happens, but about the exact policy action the Bank of Russia will announce.
The price can move when the market becomes more or less confident that the Bank of Russia will keep the rate unchanged on June 19. Traders will watch the tone of the official statement, any forward guidance in the press release, and the bank’s latest view on inflation and economic conditions, because those are the clearest cues for a hold versus a change. Since the resolution depends on the official announcement, any clarity about the meeting outcome or timing matters more than speculation about what policymakers might prefer.
The current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.6K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the Bank of Russia’s official calendar and the press release issued after the June 19, 2026 meeting. Readers should verify whether the announced key rate is identical to the pre-meeting level, because that is the exact condition for a “Yes” result. The main ambiguity to watch is the fallback rule: if no decision is published by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves as “No change,” so the official publication timing matters as much as the policy outcome itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $390.3 in 24h volume, and $2.6K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
5%
No
95%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 19, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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