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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.3K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,172,000 and $1,181,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $33 in 24h volume, and $302.6 in liquidity.
Probability
26%
24h Volume
$33
Liquidity
$302.6
This market asks a very specific housing question: where the Los Angeles Metro area’s median home value will land on June 30, 2026, and whether it will fall inside a narrow band from $1,172,000 to $1,181,000. Because Los Angeles housing is expensive and the band is tight, even a small change in the underlying index can flip the outcome.
The event is tied to the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area, using Parcl_ID 2900078. Parcl is expected to publish the relevant June 30, 2026 data, and the market settles by converting the published price-per-square-foot figure into a median home value using a fixed 1,900 square-foot multiplier, which is the stated median home size for the metro area. If the reported value lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket wins; if June 30 data is not released by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market uses the most recently published data instead.
Los Angeles Metro home prices are large enough that a relatively small move in the index can push the calculated value into or out of this range. Readers may care because the market is testing whether the official index reading will sit in a very precise dollar band, not whether prices are generally high or low. The disagreement being priced is about whether the June 30 Parcl Labs figure, when translated into a home value, will fall between $1.172 million and $1.181 million.
The biggest driver is any change in expectations for the Parcl Labs Los Angeles Metro Sales Price Index itself before June 30, since that index is the source of truth. Anything that shifts expectations for the published price-per-square-foot reading — even modestly — can matter because the market’s target range is only $9,000 wide. The settlement rule also means traders will pay attention to whether Parcl publishes the June 30 datapoint on time, or whether the fallback to the latest available reading becomes relevant.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.3K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 26% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key item to verify is the exact Parcl Labs publication for Los Angeles Metro on June 30, 2026, and whether it is posted by the July 10 backup deadline. Readers should also watch the stated settlement method carefully: the market does not use a general home-price headline, but the Sales Price Index value multiplied by 1,900 square feet. Because the bracket rule resolves ties upward, any value sitting exactly on the edge of the range should be treated as the higher bracket for settlement purposes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,172,000 and $1,181,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $33 in 24h volume, and $302.6 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
26%
No
74%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 26%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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