crypto
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
63%
+9.6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
24h Vol
$291.8K
Liquidity
$30.1K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, $4.3K in 24h volume, and $25.7K in liquidity.
Probability
42%
24h Volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$25.7K
This market asks whether the S&P 500 will finish 2026 with the strongest annual return among three very different assets: Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 itself. It is worth watching because it pits a broad U.S. stock index against a major cryptocurrency and a traditional safe-haven metal, so the result depends on whether stocks, digital assets, or gold lead over the full year.
Despite the title, the resolution is not just about the S&P 500 alone; it compares the 2026 percentage performance of Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 and resolves to the asset with the highest gain or lowest loss over the year. Bitcoin is measured from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2026 to the close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, while gold uses MarketWatch’s Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) closing prices for the last trading day in 2025 and 2026. The description for the S&P 500 is truncated in the provided data, so readers should verify the exact source and closing-price rule for that leg before the market settles.
The market is really a year-end relative-performance question: which asset class will outperform when measured on the same calendar-year basis. That creates uncertainty because each candidate behaves differently in response to growth expectations, inflation, interest rates, risk appetite, and market-specific events, so the winner could change depending on how 2026 unfolds. People follow it because it captures a simple but consequential debate about whether equities, gold, or Bitcoin will lead the pack.
Price moves can come from any development that changes the outlook for one of the three assets over the rest of 2026. For Bitcoin, the key drivers are usually crypto-market momentum and volatility around Binance-priced BTC/USDT trading; for gold, moves in the GC00 contract matter more if investors are favoring safety or reacting to interest-rate expectations; for the S&P 500, broad U.S. equity performance will depend on earnings, growth, and valuation trends. Because the market is comparative, news that helps one asset more than the others can matter even if the broader financial backdrop is unchanged.
Related markets
+9.6%
24h Vol
$291.8K
Liquidity
$30.1K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 42% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the most important thing to check is the exact source-of-truth rule for each asset, especially the S&P 500 leg, since the provided description cuts off before finishing that section. Readers should also note the measurement dates: Bitcoin is tied to specific Binance minute candles at the start and end of 2026, while gold is based on last trading-day closes for 2025 and 2026, which means holidays and market calendars matter. Any ambiguity about which index level, contract, or close is used should be settled by the market rules, not by general market convention.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, $4.3K in 24h volume, and $25.7K in liquidity.
Track live crypto prediction markets covering Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, regulation changes, and major blockchain events across the prediction market ecosystem.
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 42%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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