economy
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0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $23.7K in 24h volume, and $2.1M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$23.7K
Liquidity
$2.1M
This market asks whether Tim Walz will be the Democratic Party’s official nominee for president in 2028. It is a long-dated political question with a very specific resolution rule, so the exact language around nomination and party recognition matters more than informal speculation or campaign chatter.
The event is not asking whether Tim Walz runs, gains support, or becomes the presumed front-runner. It resolves “Yes” only if he wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, using a consensus of official Democratic Party sources as the source of truth. The deadline shown on the market is Election Day 2028, and the rules also say that if the party replaces its nominee before then, that replacement does not change this market’s outcome.
Tim Walz is a named political figure with a national profile, so there is uncertainty about whether he could emerge as the party’s nominee three election cycles ahead. The market is pricing a very specific outcome: not just whether he remains relevant in Democratic politics, but whether party officials ultimately settle on him as the nominee under the formal nomination process. Because the rule depends on official party recognition, the outcome can differ from media narratives, endorsements, or short-term polling.
Price would move if Tim Walz becomes more or less central in early Democratic presidential speculation, if party leaders publicly line up behind or against him, or if nomination rules and delegate dynamics make his path look stronger or weaker. Formal announcements, convention developments, withdrawals by other major contenders, or changes in his eligibility or willingness to accept the nomination could also matter. Since the resolution depends on official Democratic Party sources, developments that affect who is formally nominated will matter more than informal campaign momentum.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official Democratic Party nomination process, especially the final nominee declaration and any documents or statements identifying the accepted nominee for 2028. The key ambiguity to verify is whether Tim Walz is the named nominee in official party sources at resolution time, since a temporary lead, a withdrawn rival, or a replacement nominee would not be enough on its own. The market ends on 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z, so the decisive question is what the party officially recognizes by that point, not who looked strongest earlier in the cycle.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $23.7K in 24h volume, and $2.1M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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