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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $839.1 in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
Probability
24%
24h Volume
$839.1
Liquidity
$3.5K
This market asks whether the University of Michigan’s June 2026 Consumer Sentiment reading will land in a narrow band: from 43.0 to 45.9. It is worth watching because the index is a widely followed snapshot of how households feel about the economy, and the market resolves from one specific final published number, not from headlines or estimates.
The event in question is the final June 2026 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, published by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The market will pay out “Yes” only if that final June figure is at least 43.0 and less than 46.0, using the index reported to one decimal place. The scheduled resolution source is the final release at data.sca.isr.umich.edu, currently listed for June 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, and the market says preliminary numbers do not count.
Consumer sentiment readings often move around from month to month as people react to inflation, jobs, borrowing costs, and broader economic uncertainty. Because the University of Michigan publishes the index as a single monthly figure, traders can disagree not just on direction but on whether the final print falls into this exact bracket. The title’s narrow range makes the question more specific than “up or down,” which is why the market is focused on one defined outcome rather than a general economic trend.
The main price driver is any information that changes expectations for the final June 2026 print before the official release, especially signals about household confidence, inflation views, and personal-finance sentiment. Since the market resolves only on the final University of Michigan report, anything that affects expectations for the final number—not the preliminary figure alone—can matter. If the University of Michigan delays the release, the market rules say it can stay open until the next Surveys of Consumers report, so timing itself is also relevant.
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 24% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the final June 2026 release from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, since the market resolves from that source alone. The key detail is the exact one-decimal-place final index value, because the bracket is 43.0 through 45.9 and the preliminary release is explicitly excluded. If the June figure is not published on the scheduled date, the market’s fallback rule points to the next report, and if still unavailable it will use the most recent previous month with available data.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $839.1 in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
24%
No
76%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 26, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 24%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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