culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
24h Vol
$203.7K
Liquidity
$55.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $198.5K in 24h volume, and $52.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$198.5K
Liquidity
$52.5K
This market asks whether Yair Golan will be the person officially sworn in as Israel’s next prime minister after the country’s next parliamentary election. It is tied to a very specific political outcome, not just whether he becomes a leading figure or joins a coalition, so the formal appointment and swearing-in matter most. The market is worth watching because Israel’s parliamentary system can produce several possible coalition outcomes from one election result.
The title names Yair Golan, a Israeli political leader, and asks whether he will be the next Prime Minister of Israel following the next election. The market description says Israel’s legislative elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, but if an early election is called, the result would instead be judged from that election. To count as a “Yes,” Golan would have to be officially appointed and sworn in as prime minister; an interim or caretaker prime minister does not count.
This market reflects uncertainty about who will ultimately assemble a governing coalition and receive the formal mandate to lead Israel after the election. In a parliamentary system, the largest bloc or the most politically viable coalition does not automatically determine the final officeholder, which leaves room for disagreement over whether Golan could secure the post. Readers following this market are mainly trying to judge whether his path to a majority, coalition agreement, and formal swearing-in is realistic before the deadline.
Price can move if there are official signs that an election is being brought forward, because that changes the timing and possibly the coalition math. Public statements, coalition negotiations, party alliances, resignations, or clear shifts in post-election government formation could also affect whether Golan is viewed as a plausible prime ministerial nominee. Because the market resolves only on a formal swearing-in, developments that change who is actually appointed by the president and approved into office matter more than campaign rhetoric alone.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$203.7K
Liquidity
$55.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key items to verify are the election date, the official government process for forming a cabinet, and whether Yair Golan is ever formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister. The market rules say the primary source is official information from the Government of Israel, with credible reporting used as a backup, so readers should focus on that resolution standard rather than informal commentary. Also note the hard cutoff: if no qualifying prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $198.5K in 24h volume, and $52.5K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+0.1%
24h Vol
$712.8K
Liquidity
$483.5K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
+40%
24h Vol
$332.9K
Liquidity
$40K
Spread
2%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.4%
24h Vol
$215.3K
Liquidity
$76.6K
Spread
0%
6/23/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$136.7K
Liquidity
$2.7M
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
-0.1%
24h Vol
$322.3K
Liquidity
$188.9K
Spread
0%
7/29/2026
View market