economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $29.5K in 24h volume, and $2.4M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$29.5K
Liquidity
$2.4M
This market asks whether Zohran Mamdani will become the Democratic Party’s 2028 nominee for U.S. president and accept that nomination. It is a long-dated political question centered on one specific name, so the key issue is not just whether he remains a prominent figure, but whether he ends up as the party’s official choice in a future nomination process.
The event is tied to the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with resolution set for the candidate who is officially nominated by the Democratic Party for U.S. president and accepts that nomination. Zohran Mamdani is the named individual in the title, so this market is about whether he personally secures that party nomination by the time the 2028 presidential race is decided. The market’s stated end date is November 7, 2028, and the resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
There is uncertainty because presidential nominations are shaped by party rules, campaign decisions, delegate support, and the broader political environment over several years. Mamdani would need to move from being a named political figure to becoming the Democratic Party’s formal choice for president, which is a much narrower and more demanding outcome than simply being visible in national politics. The market is pricing disagreement about whether he can plausibly clear that path.
Price can move if Mamdani enters or is discussed as a serious presidential contender, if major Democratic figures signal support or opposition, or if party rules and primary calendars make the nomination path look easier or harder. Official filings, delegate math, debate eligibility, endorsements, and changes in the field of declared candidates would all matter because they affect whether he could realistically become the party’s nominee. Since the market resolves only on the official nomination, any development that changes who is actually positioned to win the convention would be especially important.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch official Democratic Party announcements, convention results, and any rule changes that affect how the 2028 nominee is selected. The description says the resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, so the key check is whether those sources identify Mamdani as the nominee and whether he accepts the nomination. One important detail in the rules is that replacing the Democratic nominee before Election Day does not change the resolution, so the market is about the original nomination outcome, not later substitutions.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $29.5K in 24h volume, and $2.4M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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