culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $2.3K in 24h volume, and $7.2K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$7.2K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will be unusually active on X over a specific seven-day window, with the tracker counting main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts. Because Musk is one of the platform’s most watched accounts, even a short burst of posting can quickly change how this market resolves.
The question is whether @elonmusk will post between 120 and 139 times on X from June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The resolution is not based on a rough estimate or manual count; it uses the “Post Counter” on xtracker.polymarket.com, with individual posts available through the tracker’s export data. Replies do not count unless they appear as main-feed posts tracked by the system, while deleted posts can still count if they were captured in time.
Musk’s posting volume can vary a lot from week to week, and the market is testing a very specific band rather than a simple yes-or-no on whether he will be active. The 120–139 range is narrow enough that a few extra reposts, quote posts, or a short quiet stretch can move the outcome across the line. Readers following this market are really watching whether his X activity lands in that middle zone during the exact measurement window.
The price can move if Musk has a burst of announcements, back-and-forth posting, or frequent reposting during the window, since those all count toward the total. A quieter stretch, a travel-heavy week, or a period where he posts less than usual would push the market away from the target range. Because the market resolves on the tracker’s count, even small differences in what gets captured, deleted, or classified as a counted post can matter.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe most important thing to check is the tracker’s post count for the exact June 9–June 16 ET window, since that is the official source of truth. Readers should also pay attention to the rules around what counts: main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts are included, replies generally are not unless the tracker captures them as main-feed posts, and community reposts are excluded. If the tracker does not update correctly, the market rules say X itself may be used as a backup resolution source, so any ambiguity about the final count should be judged against that fallback standard.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $2.3K in 24h volume, and $7.2K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
2.2%
No
97.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 16, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$55.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View market-0.5%
24h Vol
$82.3K
Liquidity
$54.9K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$93.6K
Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-42.7%
24h Vol
$39.4K
Liquidity
$8.2K
Spread
4%
6/8/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$20.4K
Liquidity
$135.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market