culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $533 in 24h volume, and $7.7K in liquidity.
Probability
13%
24h Volume
$533
Liquidity
$7.7K
This market asks a simple, measurable question about Elon Musk’s posting activity on X over a one-week window in June 2026. Because Musk is one of the platform’s most visible and active figures, his posting volume can swing quickly and the final count depends on a very specific tracking rule set, not just general activity.
The market resolves to whether Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts between 220 and 239 times on X from June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The count includes main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, while replies generally do not count unless they appear in the main feed in the way described by the rules. The outcome is based on the tracker’s “Post Counter” on xtracker.polymarket.com, with X used as a fallback source if the tracker does not update correctly.
The uncertainty is not about whether Elon Musk is likely to post at all, but how intense his posting cadence will be during this exact window. A total in the 220–239 range implies roughly a mid-to-high posting pace over seven days, so the market is really pricing how active his X account will be under the tracker’s definition of a counted post. Readers may care because Musk’s posting habits can change sharply around product announcements, policy debates, public commentary, or simply bursts of platform activity.
The price can move if Musk becomes unusually active or unusually quiet during the June 9–16 window, especially if he posts multiple times in a short stretch. Large clusters of main feed posts, quote posts, or reposts push the count toward or above the band, while a quieter week makes the 220–239 range harder to reach. Because only certain kinds of posts count, changes in how he uses replies versus main-feed posts can also matter a lot.
The current market price implies roughly a 13% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketBefore resolution, the key thing to verify is the tracker’s Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, since that is the stated source of truth. Readers should check the exact time window, because the market uses June 9 at 12:00 PM ET through June 16 at 12:00 PM ET, and posts outside that frame do not count. The rules also create ambiguity around deleted posts, replies, and community reposts, so the final tally should be understood in the tracker’s terms rather than by a simple glance at the X profile alone.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $533 in 24h volume, and $7.7K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
12.5%
No
87.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 16, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 13%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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