culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
9%
-46.5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$259.3K
Liquidity
$12.7K
Spread
2%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $354.3 in 24h volume, and $6.6K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$354.3
Liquidity
$6.6K
This market asks a very specific question about Elon Musk’s posting volume on X over a one-week window in June 2026. Because Musk is one of the platform’s most visible and active users, even a narrow tweet-count range can draw attention from people tracking his public activity and communication style.
The event is whether Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post between 240 and 259 times on X from June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The count is not just for original posts: the rules say main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts all count, while replies generally do not, except where the tracker classifies certain replies on the main feed as countable. The market resolves from the Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, with X itself used only if the tracker fails to update correctly under the stated rules.
The uncertainty here is not whether Musk is likely to post on X at all, but whether his activity over that exact seven-day span lands inside a fairly tight band. His posting habits can change with product announcements, business news, platform issues, political commentary, or bursts of meme-style activity, so the final total depends on both how often he uses the account and which kinds of posts the tracker counts. Readers may care because this is a clean measure of online activity tied to a high-profile public figure, and the exact threshold creates room for disagreement about how active the account will be during that week.
The price can move if Musk appears to be in a period of unusually heavy posting or, conversely, if he seems relatively quiet on X. Public announcements tied to Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, X, or other projects can lead to clusters of posts, while long stretches without major news can keep the total from climbing toward the upper end of the range. Because reposts and quote posts count but replies usually do not, changes in his posting style matter as much as the raw number of times he opens the app.
Related markets
-46.5%
24h Vol
$259.3K
Liquidity
$12.7K
Spread
2%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the counting method, not just the visible tweet total in the app. Readers should check the tracker’s Post Counter, confirm the exact start and end times in ET, and remember that deleted posts can still count if they were captured long enough, while community reposts do not. If the tracker and X disagree, the market rules allow X to serve as a backup source, so any ambiguity about post classification or missing entries could affect the final resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $354.3 in 24h volume, and $6.6K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
9.5%
No
90.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 16, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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$126.9K
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$55.1K
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0%
6/9/2026
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Liquidity
$1.9M
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$8.2K
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$20.3K
Liquidity
$135.5K
Spread
0%
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