culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
10%
-46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$257.5K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $100 in 24h volume, and $7.4K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$100
Liquidity
$7.4K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will land in a very specific posting range on X over a one-week window in June 2026. The unusual part is not whether he posts a lot in general, but whether his total falls between 340 and 359 posts under the tracker’s counting rules. Because Musk is one of the platform’s most active high-profile users, even small changes in posting cadence can matter here.
The event is measured from June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution is based on the Post Counter figure for @elonmusk at xtracker.polymarket.com, with main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts included, while replies do not count except for replies that appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. The market resolves Yes only if the tracker records a total between 340 and 359 posts in that window, and individual posts can be checked through the tracker’s export data.
There is real uncertainty here because Musk’s posting volume can vary widely depending on his schedule, current events, product announcements, and how actively he uses X during that exact week. The market is effectively pricing whether he will have an unusually busy posting stretch that fits a narrow band, rather than just whether he will be active at all. The date range matters because the count is measured over a fixed seven-day period, so a few dozen extra or missing posts can change the outcome.
Posts that clearly add to the tracked total—especially main-feed posts, reposts, and quote posts—can move this market quickly, since the target range is very specific. A burst of activity, long threads split into multiple main-feed posts, or repeated reposting can push the count toward or past the band, while a quieter stretch would work against it. Because deleted posts still count if the tracker captures them long enough, short-lived posts may matter too, which is why the live total on the tracker is the key thing to watch.
Related markets
-46%
24h Vol
$257.5K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, the most important thing to check is the tracker’s Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, since that is the primary resolution source. Readers should also verify whether the counted total includes the kinds of posts specified in the rules—main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts—while excluding ordinary replies and community reposts not captured by the tracker. The deadline is June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and if the tracker fails to update correctly, X itself may be used as a backup source, so the exact final count matters more than any informal estimate.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $100 in 24h volume, and $7.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
2.5%
No
97.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 16, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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$55.2K
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0%
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