culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $7.2K in 24h volume, and $9.3K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$7.2K
Liquidity
$9.3K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will post between 440 and 459 times on X during the June 9–16, 2026 window. Because the count is tied to a specific account and a fixed time range, the key issue is not just whether he is active, but whether his posting volume lands inside that narrow band.
The market resolves using the Post Counter for @elonmusk from June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count; replies do not, except for replies that appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. The question is simply whether the final count falls in the 440–459 range, with the market closing at 16:00 UTC on June 16, 2026.
Elon Musk is an unusually high-volume poster on X, so even a one-week posting count can vary a lot depending on his schedule, news cycle, and how much he uses the account in public. The market is pricing a very specific slice of activity: not whether he is active in general, but whether his posting lands in a relatively tight numerical band over a fixed week. That makes the outcome sensitive to everyday changes in how often he posts, reposts, or uses quote posts.
Price can move quickly if his posting pace rises or slows during the window, especially if he goes on a burst of reposts or quote posts that add to the count. Changes in the tracker itself can matter too, since the market uses the xtracker.polymarket.com Post Counter and can fall back on X if the tracker fails to update properly. Any unexpectedly deleted posts that were captured by the tracker, or any dispute over whether a post type should count, could also affect how traders read the result.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketReaders should watch the tracker’s Post Counter figure and the exported post list, since those are the stated resolution sources. The main things to verify are the exact time window, whether the posts are main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts, and whether a reply is being counted because it appears on the main feed rather than as a normal reply. If the tracker behaves inconsistently, the rules say X itself may be used as a secondary source, so the final count should be checked against the market’s own counting rules rather than a casual read of his profile.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $7.2K in 24h volume, and $9.3K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 16, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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$126.9K
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$55.1K
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0%
6/9/2026
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Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
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Liquidity
$8.2K
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Liquidity
$135.5K
Spread
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