culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $261.8 in 24h volume, and $8.1K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$261.8
Liquidity
$8.1K
This market asks a very specific question about Elon Musk’s posting activity on X during a one-week window in June 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on a narrowly defined count, not just whether Musk is active or inactive, and the resolution rules lean on a tracker rather than casual impressions of his feed.
The market resolves on whether Elon Musk’s X account, @elonmusk, makes between 460 and 479 counted posts from June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For this market, the counted items are main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts; replies do not count unless they appear as main-feed replies that the tracker captures, and community reposts are excluded. The deadline matters because the total is measured over that exact seven-day slice, and the answer depends on the Post Counter figure shown at xtracker.polymarket.com.
Musk’s X activity is unusual enough that even a one-week posting total can be uncertain, especially when the rules distinguish between different kinds of posts. Readers may care because this is a clean, observable measure of how active he is on the platform during the period, and small differences in posting cadence can change the result. The market is pricing disagreement about whether his total will land inside this fairly narrow band, which sits between very low posting totals and much heavier activity.
The most direct price movers are changes in Musk’s posting pace during the window: frequent main-feed posts, reposts, or quote posts make the 460-479 range more plausible, while slower activity pushes the market away from it. Because only certain post types count, a burst of replies alone would not necessarily help unless the tracker records them as countable main-feed replies. Any issue with the tracker, including delayed updates or missing items, could also affect how the market is interpreted under the secondary-source rule.
Related markets
-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, readers should check the exact start and end times, since the window runs from June 9 at 12:00 PM ET to June 16 at 12:00 PM ET. The source of truth is the Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, with individual posts available through the Export Data function; if that tracker fails to follow the rules correctly, X itself can be used as a backup source. The main ambiguity to watch is which posts are counted, especially the treatment of replies, deleted posts that remain visible long enough to be captured, and reposts that the tracker may or may not include.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $261.8 in 24h volume, and $8.1K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 16, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$55.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View market-0.5%
24h Vol
$82.3K
Liquidity
$54.9K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$93.6K
Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-43.3%
24h Vol
$39.4K
Liquidity
$8.2K
Spread
5%
6/8/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$20.4K
Liquidity
$135.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market