culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
10%
-46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$257.5K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1.6K in 24h volume, and $8.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$8.4K
This market asks a very specific question about Elon Musk’s posting volume on X over a one-week window in June 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on a narrowly defined count of main-feed activity, not just casual scrolling or general online presence.
The event is whether Elon Musk, posting from @elonmusk on X, reaches 500 or more counted posts between June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For this market, the count includes main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, while replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed in a way the tracker counts them; deleted posts still count if they were captured in time. Resolution is based first on the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, with individual posts available through the tracker’s export data view, and X itself can be used if the tracker does not update correctly.
The uncertainty here is not whether Elon Musk is active online, but how active he will be during this exact seven-day stretch and under these counting rules. A threshold like 500 posts is unusually high, so the market is really pricing a question about posting intensity, schedule, and whether his public activity will spike or stay lower during the window. Because the rules are precise about which kinds of posts count, small differences in behavior can matter a lot.
New information that could move this market would be anything that suggests Musk is likely to post more or less than usual during the June 9–16 window, especially if he begins a burst of main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts. Since replies are treated differently, a shift toward reply-heavy activity could matter less than a shift toward visible main-feed posting. The count can also be affected by deleted posts that were live long enough for the tracker to capture, so any discussion around deletions, reposts, or tracker updates can change how close the market looks to the 500-post line.
Related markets
-46%
24h Vol
$257.5K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to check is the tracker’s Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, since that is the primary source of truth for resolution. Readers should also verify the exact start and end timestamps: June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, because posts outside that window do not count. The main ambiguity risk is how the tracker classifies borderline cases such as replies on the main feed, deleted posts, or posts that X shows differently from the tracker, so the resolution note and exported post list are worth reviewing if the final count is close to 500.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1.6K in 24h volume, and $8.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 16, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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$126.9K
Liquidity
$55.2K
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0%
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Liquidity
$134K
Spread
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