politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $3.1K in 24h volume, and $17.3K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$17.3K
This market asks whether the World Health Organization will elevate hantavirus to the highest formal international alert level by June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because a WHO declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern is a specific, rare step that signals the agency sees an outbreak as unusually serious, cross-border, and urgent.
Hantavirus is a family of viruses known for causing severe disease in some cases, and the title here focuses on whether WHO will officially declare hantavirus, or any strain or outbreak of it, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the deadline. The resolution window closes at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026, and only that exact WHO designation counts for a “Yes.” Other labels, warnings, or public health statements do not satisfy the market.
The market is pricing a narrow but meaningful uncertainty: whether global public health authorities will judge a hantavirus event severe enough to meet WHO’s PHEIC standard before the deadline. Readers may care because that designation can affect international coordination, public attention, and how quickly governments and health systems respond, but it is not issued for every outbreak or cluster. The key disagreement is not whether hantavirus exists, but whether developments between now and the deadline will reach the specific threshold in the market rules.
The price would move most on official WHO action, especially any announcement, emergency committee outcome, or statement indicating a PHEIC declaration tied to hantavirus. Verified reports of a fast-spreading outbreak, unusual geographic spread, or evidence that public health authorities are escalating the issue could also change expectations, even before WHO acts. By contrast, routine surveillance updates, local health advisories, or non-PHEIC WHO notices would matter less unless they clearly point toward the exact designation this market requires.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important source of truth is the WHO itself, because the rules say the market resolves on official WHO information first, with credible reporting only as a backup. Readers should check whether WHO has used the exact phrase Public Health Emergency of International Concern for hantavirus, not just whether it has discussed cases, held meetings, or issued guidance. The deadline is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, so any declaration after that time would not count, and ambiguity can arise if WHO announces a related emergency measure that falls short of a formal PHEIC.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $3.1K in 24h volume, and $17.3K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
1.8%
No
98.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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