Iran leadership change by June 30?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Iran leadership change by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $181.2K in 24h volume, and $83.9K in liquidity.

Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.