
-0.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $57.6K in 24h volume, and $88.5K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$57.6K
Liquidity
$88.5K
This market asks whether Kevin Warsh, if he becomes Chair of the Federal Reserve, will oversee a rate cut at his very first FOMC meeting. It is worth watching because the Fed’s first move under a new chair can be read as an early signal about how that chair wants to balance inflation control, growth concerns, and market expectations.
The event here is not simply whether the Fed cuts rates at some point, but whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range is lowered at the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting held while Kevin Warsh is Chair. The market’s resolution depends on the official FOMC statement after that meeting, and it will resolve “No” if Warsh’s nomination is withdrawn, rejected, or no qualifying meeting happens by December 31, 2026 ET. In other words, readers should focus on the exact meeting date, who is sitting as chair, and whether the statement announces a lower upper bound for the target range.
There is real uncertainty because the first meeting under a new Fed chair can happen in very different macro conditions, and the chair’s appointment itself is not guaranteed. Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve governor, so his name matters because the market is tied to a specific person, not just any future chair. The disagreement underneath this market is about both personnel and policy: will the first meeting under Warsh produce easier monetary policy, or will the Fed leave rates unchanged?
Any official development around Kevin Warsh’s nomination, confirmation, withdrawal, or rejection would matter immediately because those events determine whether the market can even reach a qualifying Fed meeting. If the FOMC calendar advances to a meeting while he is chair, traders will focus on the statement language and the announced target range, especially whether the upper bound is cut. Guidance from FOMC communications, changes in inflation or labor-market conditions reflected in official Fed messaging, and any sign that the committee is leaning toward easing could also shift expectations.
Related markets

-0.2%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the FOMC statement for the first meeting at which Kevin Warsh is Fed Chair, along with the Fed’s official calendar and open-market page that list the target federal funds range. The important detail is the upper bound of that range, since the market resolves only if that specific number is decreased in the statement tied to the qualifying meeting. Readers should also verify whether the nomination was finalized and whether a qualifying meeting occurred before the end-date fallback, because those conditions determine whether the market can resolve “Yes” at all.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $57.6K in 24h volume, and $88.5K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
1.9%
No
98.1%
Polymarket has not provided a clear end date for this market yet.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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