economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Macron out by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $9.2K in 24h volume, and $19.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$9.2K
Liquidity
$19.4K
This market asks whether Emmanuel Macron will stop serving as President of France at any point before the end of June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on a formal change in office, not on opinion, speculation, or short-lived political turbulence.
The question is straightforward: will Macron cease to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? If he leaves office early for any reason, the market resolves to Yes immediately; if he remains president through the deadline, it resolves to No. The primary source for resolution is official information from the French government, with credible reporting used as a backup if needed.
The market is pricing uncertainty around whether France’s president could leave office before the deadline through resignation, removal, incapacity, or any other event that ends his presidency. Macron is the head of state in a system where constitutional process matters, so even a brief departure from office would satisfy the rule. Readers may care because the outcome turns on formal political continuity in one of Europe’s major governments, and the market is sensitive to any event that changes the presidency itself rather than just day-to-day politics.
The main price-moving developments would be any official statement from French institutions about Macron’s status, a resignation announcement, a constitutional or parliamentary process affecting his tenure, or a confirmed transfer of presidential duties. Reports of serious health issues, impeachment-style proceedings, or a legal ruling that changes his ability to hold office could also matter if they are credible and tied to whether he remains president. By contrast, routine controversy, protests, cabinet changes, or low approval ratings would not resolve the market unless they actually lead to him ceasing to be president.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the June 30, 2026 deadline, readers should check the exact resolution rule: the market only needs Macron to be out of office for any length of time within the stated window. The key source of truth is the French government, so an official resignation, succession notice, or other state announcement would be most important; a strong consensus of credible reporting can also be used if official confirmation is delayed. The main ambiguity to watch for is whether he has truly ceased to be president, since temporary political turbulence or speculation is not enough unless it results in a formal end to his term.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Macron out by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $9.2K in 24h volume, and $19.4K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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