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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$540.9K
Liquidity
$259.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 23%, $217.1 in 24h volume, and $5.5K in liquidity.
Probability
23%
24h Volume
$217.1
Liquidity
$5.5K
This market asks whether the CME Silver futures settlement will finish above $80 on the final trading day of June 2026. It is tied to a specific official CME settlement, so the exact closing methodology matters more than the day’s intraday silver moves.
The underlying reference is CME Group’s Silver (SI) futures contract, using the Active Month for the final trading day in June 2026. The question is simple: will the official CME settlement price for that Active Month be higher than $80, or will it be at or below $80? The contract resolves only from the first-published CME settlement for that day, and only official settlement values count.
Silver can trade sharply on inflation expectations, dollar strength, industrial demand, and broader risk sentiment, so a round-number level like $80 is a meaningful threshold. Because the market is anchored to a future exchange settlement rather than an intraday quote, traders can disagree on both the metal’s direction and the exact contract-month mechanics that determine the official price. The June 2026 date also matters because the market only cares about the final trading day in that month, not where silver trades earlier in June.
Movements in the Active Month silver future itself are the main driver, especially if prices approach the $80 threshold near expiration. Changes in macro conditions that affect precious metals—such as shifts in the U.S. dollar, interest-rate expectations, inflation concerns, or broad commodity sentiment—can also change how realistic an $80 settlement looks. Because the market is based on the official CME settlement, anything that affects the final settlement methodology or the Active Month rollover timing is especially important to watch.
The current market price implies roughly a 23% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$540.9K
Liquidity
$259.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketReaders should check the CME settlement page for the Active Month of SI on each June trading day, and then verify which contract month is designated as the Active Month under CME’s delivery-cycle rules. Weekends, holidays, and days without an official CME settlement are ignored, so the relevant date is the final trading day on which CME actually publishes a settlement for that month. The resolution source is the CME Group website, specifically the daily settlement information referenced in the market rules, and the first published settlement for that day controls even if CME later issues a correction.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 23%, $217.1 in 24h volume, and $5.5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
23%
No
77%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 23%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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