
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$212.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $18.6K in 24h volume, and $34.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$18.6K
Liquidity
$34.6K
This market asks whether CME Gold futures, specifically the active month contract for GC, will settle at or above $6,500 on any trading day before the end of June 2026. It is a high bar relative to the current price range of gold futures, so the market is really tracking whether a major rally develops before the June deadline.
The key question is simple: will the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures reach $6,500 or higher by the final trading day in June 2026? The active month is the nearest eligible delivery month in CME’s Gold contract cycle, and it can switch automatically on the contract’s First Position Date, so the exact contract being watched may change over time. Resolution depends only on CME’s published official settlement price for that active month, not on intraday highs, last trades, or any other price snapshot.
Gold is a widely followed macro asset, so a large move in the futures market can reflect changing expectations about inflation, real interest rates, the dollar, central bank policy, or broader risk sentiment. The $6,500 level is far enough above typical trading ranges that readers may reasonably disagree on whether the contract can get there by June 2026. This market is pricing that disagreement in a very specific, rules-based way tied to a CME settlement threshold.
The price can move if gold futures trend sharply higher and the active contract settles near the $6,500 threshold on a CME trading day before June ends. Because the market uses the active month settlement, shifts in which GC contract is considered active can matter just as much as the outright move in gold itself. Any sustained rally in the front-month contract, especially one that pushes the official settlement price across the line, would be the clearest event-specific catalyst for a Yes resolution.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$212.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official CME settlement page for Gold (GC) and confirm which contract is the active month on each relevant trading day. The resolution rules rely on the first published settlement price for that day, and later corrections do not count, so the initial CME posting is the source of truth. The deadline is the final trading day of June 2026, and weekends, holidays, or days without a published settlement are ignored, so the exact trading calendar matters.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $18.6K in 24h volume, and $34.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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