economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 76%, $3.9K in 24h volume, and $11.2K in liquidity.
Probability
76%
24h Volume
$3.9K
Liquidity
$11.2K
This market asks whether the Trump administration will declassify any previously unavailable files about extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial phenomena by June 30. It is worth watching because UFO/UAP declassification often depends on formal paperwork, security review, and an announcement that may or may not be completed before the deadline.
The question is narrowly defined: by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, the Trump administration must have declassified at least one file that fits the description and was not already public. The market’s rules say the relevant government universe includes the Executive Office of the President and executive branch departments and agencies, including the Department of Defense and its components. A mere announcement is not enough unless the declassification is actually implemented within the market window, and the official U.S. government record is the main source of truth, with credible consensus reporting as a fallback.
This market is focused on a specific kind of uncertainty: whether the administration will take a concrete public step on highly sensitive records tied to UFOs, UAPs, or extraterrestrial-related material. The topic matters because declassification can be slowed by classification rules, interagency review, and national security concerns, so even when officials signal interest, the timing can still be unclear. Traders are effectively disagreeing about whether there will be an actual declassification event before the deadline, not just more discussion about it.
The price can move if the White House, Pentagon, or another covered agency issues a formal declassification notice, releases documents, or confirms that previously secret files have been made public. It can also move if officials announce an intent to declassify but the paperwork, publication, or release process slips past June 30, because the market rules require implementation in time. Any official clarification about whether a release qualifies as new and previously unavailable would also matter, since the wording turns on the exact status of the files.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 76% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the deadline, readers should check whether the release is official, whether it actually occurred before 11:59 PM ET, and whether the material was previously unavailable to the public. The key ambiguity is not just whether something was discussed, but whether the government completed a declassification of qualifying files within the market’s timeframe. The primary source is U.S. government information, so the most important thing to verify is the official record of release rather than a statement about future plans.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 76%, $3.9K in 24h volume, and $11.2K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
75.5%
No
24.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 76%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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