
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? . The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $183.4K in 24h volume, and $28.2K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$183.4K
Liquidity
$28.2K
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? . The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $183.4K in 24h volume, and $28.2K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
3.7%
No
96.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketProbability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

--
24h Vol
$93.7K
Liquidity
$359.5K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market
-0.6%
24h Vol
$277.9K
Liquidity
$644.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.2%
24h Vol
$234.9K
Liquidity
$64.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
0%
24h Vol
$62K
Liquidity
$63K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
+24.5%
24h Vol
$183.7K
Liquidity
$582.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market