US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

What this market is about

The event here is a publicly announced mutual agreement between the United States and Iran covering Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development. The market resolves “Yes” if such an agreement is officially reached by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, even if the deal is multilateral and includes other countries as long as the U.S. and Iran are parties. If no qualifying agreement is announced by the deadline, the market resolves “No”.

Why the market exists

This market centers on a specific diplomatic question with real uncertainty: whether Washington and Tehran can formalize terms on nuclear limits, monitoring, or related commitments before the deadline. The parties have a long history of talks, tension, and provisional arrangements, so readers are watching for any official breakthrough, not just informal signals or speculation. The market is pricing disagreement over whether the two governments will manage to translate negotiations into a publicly recognized agreement in time.

What can move the price

The price can move on an official U.S. or Iranian announcement, or on highly credible reporting that both sides have reached a deal and confirmed the core terms. Statements that negotiations have resumed, that intermediaries have advanced a framework, or that a broader multilateral accord now includes both countries could also matter if they point toward a qualifying agreement. By contrast, routine diplomatic comments, indirect talks, or vague expressions of willingness are less likely to matter unless they clearly indicate an actual public agreement.

How to read the current probability