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Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$244.1K
Liquidity
$617.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $87.2K in 24h volume, and $82K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$87.2K
Liquidity
$82K
This market asks whether the United States and Iran will hold a qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026. It is worth watching because even a small, publicly acknowledged contact between the two governments can matter for broader US-Iran relations, especially when the rules are focused on formal diplomacy rather than casual or accidental contact.
The question is narrow: will there be an in-person meeting, direct or indirectly facilitated, between representatives of the US and Iran who are authorized to negotiate or conduct diplomacy on behalf of their governments by 11:59 PM ET on June 7, 2026. The market’s rules count meetings that are publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by a consensus of credible media, and they exclude phone calls, remote meetings, brief greetings, and chance encounters. In practical terms, readers should look for an actual diplomatic encounter, not just contact between officials.
US-Iran relations are often managed through formal talks, intermediaries, or carefully worded public statements, which means the difference between a true diplomatic meeting and ordinary contact can be important. There is also room for ambiguity around whether an encounter was deliberate, whether the people involved were acting in an official capacity, and whether indirect meetings through mediators qualify under the rules. That uncertainty is what the market is pricing: whether a qualifying, publicly recognized meeting happens before the deadline.
The biggest price moves would come from announcements that US and Iranian officials are set to meet, especially if the meeting is described as bilateral, mediated, or part of an official diplomatic process. A clear denial, cancellation, or postponement past the June 7 deadline would push the market the other way, as would reports that talks are limited to indirect messages, phone calls, or lower-level contact that does not meet the rule. Because the market requires in-person contact and public acknowledgment or strong media confirmation, even a seemingly important conversation may not count unless the format is right.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.1K
Liquidity
$617.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the deadline, readers should check whether any reported US-Iran contact is explicitly a meeting, whether it is in person, and whether the participants are authorized government representatives. The key resolution questions are not just whether talks happened, but whether they happened in the form the market requires and whether they were publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by credible reporting. The main ambiguity risk is indirect diplomacy: meetings through mediators can qualify, but only if they are in-person and clearly tied to official US-Iran negotiations or diplomacy.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $87.2K in 24h volume, and $82K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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