
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$243.3K
Liquidity
$613.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 72%, $41.4K in 24h volume, and $228.6K in liquidity.
Probability
72%
24h Volume
$41.4K
Liquidity
$228.6K
This market asks whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026. It is focused on a lasting end to military hostilities, not a short pause or a temporary ceasefire, so the wording of any announcement matters a great deal.
To resolve “Yes,” the market needs a qualifying agreement between the U.S. and Iran by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The deal must explicitly say that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease, or use equally clear language showing a lasting settlement; temporary arrangements do not count, including any explicitly short-term extension of a ceasefire. The market can also resolve from official public confirmation by both governments that such an agreement has been definitively established, even if the full text is not immediately published.
The United States and Iran have had a long, strained relationship shaped by sanctions, nuclear diplomacy, regional conflicts, and repeated crises over military escalation. That history leaves plenty of room for disagreement about whether any future breakthrough would be a narrow de-escalation or a true peace agreement with permanent language. The market is essentially pricing that uncertainty: whether diplomacy will produce a durable, formally acknowledged end to hostilities before the deadline.
A signed treaty, multi-point agreement, or joint official statement from Washington and Tehran using clear “permanent” or “lasting end” language would be the biggest price mover. By contrast, announcements about talks, confidence-building steps, prisoner swaps, indirect negotiations, or a temporary ceasefire would matter far less unless they clearly cross the market’s threshold. Because the rules exclude temporary deals, any phrase that leaves room for later renewal, extension, or review would likely be interpreted as insufficient.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$243.3K
Liquidity
$613.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 72% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the exact language in any official U.S. or Iranian release, especially whether it explicitly ends military hostilities on a permanent basis. Readers should also check whether both governments have publicly confirmed the same agreement, since the rules require clear confirmation or a written agreement rather than vague statements of progress. The resolution source is official information, so ambiguity around wording, translation, or whether an announcement is truly final could be decisive.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 72%, $41.4K in 24h volume, and $228.6K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
71.5%
No
28.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 72%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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