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24h Vol
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10/4/2026
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Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 63%, $7.2K in 24h volume, and $153.8K in liquidity.
Probability
63%
24h Volume
$7.2K
Liquidity
$153.8K
This market asks whether the United States and Iran will formally settle their conflict with a permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026. It is not asking about a pause in fighting or a short-lived ceasefire; the key question is whether both governments clearly commit to ending military hostilities on a lasting basis.
The event is about a qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement reached by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Under the rules, the deal must explicitly say that military hostilities between the two countries have ended or will permanently cease, or use equivalent language with the same meaning. A temporary arrangement, an extension of a ceasefire, or vague diplomatic progress would not count; the market only resolves Yes if there is either a written agreement signed or formally adopted by both sides, or clear public confirmation from both governments that a definitive permanent peace agreement exists.
The uncertainty here is not just whether Washington and Tehran keep talking, but whether those talks produce a durable, publicly recognized end to military hostilities. U.S.-Iran relations have long been shaped by sanctions, regional conflict, and periodic escalation, so a true permanent peace deal would be a major diplomatic break from the status quo. Readers may care because the outcome would signal a lasting change in the bilateral relationship, while the market is pricing disagreement over whether any announced arrangement before the deadline will be strong enough to meet the market’s strict wording.
Price can move quickly on official announcements from either government, especially if they use explicit phrases like “permanent peace,” “end of military hostilities,” or other language that clearly satisfies the rule. Joint statements, treaty text, or formal ratification steps would make the Yes case stronger, while reports of talks without a final public agreement would generally leave the question unresolved. The market may also react if a ceasefire, interim framework, or diplomatic understanding is announced but is described as temporary, because the rules say those do not qualify.
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24h Vol
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View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 63% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is the exact wording of any agreement and whether both governments publicly confirm that a qualifying deal has been definitively established. Because the rules rely on official information, the safest source of truth is a formal statement, treaty, or other public government record rather than commentary about negotiations or intentions. Readers should also watch the deadline carefully: anything that is not clearly established by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, will not count, and any ambiguity about whether an agreement is permanent could determine the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 63%, $7.2K in 24h volume, and $153.8K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 63%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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