
-0.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 52%, $2.6K in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
Probability
52%
24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$5.9K
This market is asking a very specific question: when the May 2026 data point is published, will the St. Louis Fed’s recorded U.S. city average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs land between $2.00 and $2.25? It is worth watching because the answer depends on an official monthly price series, not a one-day retail snapshot, and the result will be tied to a published government data release.
The event here is the May reading for “Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average,” the series tracked by the St. Louis Fed under FRED code APU0000708111. The market resolves to the bracket containing that May value once the St. Louis Fed updates its chart, with the May release currently scheduled for June 10, 2026. The resolution rule also says the measurement is used to three decimal places, and if the final figure falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the higher bracket wins.
Egg prices are a highly visible household item, so even modest monthly changes draw attention. The uncertainty here is not whether eggs are expensive in some broad sense, but where one official monthly average will land inside a narrow price band, which can be affected by CPI methodology, seasonal shifts, and month-to-month changes in the underlying Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Readers are effectively watching whether the May average comes in inside that $2.00 to $2.25 window or just outside it.
The main thing that can move this market is the actual May CPI-based egg price once it is published by the St. Louis Fed. Any surprise in the underlying BLS inflation data, a change in the reported monthly average, or a revision-like update reflected in the chart could push the final value into a different bracket. Because the market is close to a threshold, even a small move around $2.00 or $2.25 matters a lot more than a larger move far from those cutoffs.
Related markets

-0.2%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 52% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, check the St. Louis Fed FRED page for series APU0000708111 and the scheduled May publication date of June 10, 2026. The source of truth is the updated chart on the St. Louis Fed page, not a news summary or retail store price. A reader should also watch for the fallback rule: if May is not released by the time the next month’s data is due, the market settles on the last available month instead, and exact-border values resolve to the higher bracket.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 52%, $2.6K in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the May data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The May release is presently scheduled for June 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 52%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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