economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.5K in 24h volume, and $135.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$25.5K
Liquidity
$135.4K
This market asks whether Amir Ohana will be the person officially appointed and sworn in as Israel’s next prime minister after the country’s next parliamentary election. It is tied to Israel’s coalition-based political system, where the election outcome does not by itself name a leader; the decisive step is who actually assembles support and takes the oath of office. Because the market is about the next sworn-in prime minister, late coalition talks and changes in governing alliances can matter as much as election-day headlines.
The event being measured is not simply who wins the most seats, but who is formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the next Knesset election. The market description says the scheduled election is October 27, 2026, but if an early election is called, that earlier contest becomes the one that matters for resolution. Amir Ohana is an Israeli politician, and this market is specifically asking whether he ends up holding the top executive office after that electoral process; if no qualifying prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”
There is meaningful uncertainty because Israeli governments are usually built through coalition bargaining, not a direct vote for prime minister, so the post-election outcome can differ from simple party popularity or polling. Amir Ohana would need to emerge as the person who is officially appointed and sworn in, which depends on party strength, coalition deals, and whether another figure is chosen instead. The market is essentially pricing the chance that he becomes the final, formally installed head of government rather than serving in any other role.
The price can move if there are signs that an early election may be called, since that would shift the timing and potentially the coalition math. Official party leadership decisions, coalition negotiations, endorsements from major blocs, or any public indication that Ohana is being considered for prime minister would be especially relevant. On the other hand, signs that another candidate is the consensus choice, or that no stable coalition is forming around Ohana, would push the market away from a “Yes” outcome.
Related markets
-0.2%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official Government of Israel announcements for the election date, the formation of any governing coalition, and the formal appointment-and-swearing-in ceremony, since the rules require the individual to be officially sworn in. The market does not count a caretaker or interim prime minister, so a temporary officeholder would not satisfy the resolution criteria. One ambiguity to verify is whether the next election is the scheduled October 27, 2026 vote or an earlier snap election, because that changes the event timeline; if no valid prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.5K in 24h volume, and $135.4K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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