world
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
--
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$513.8K
Liquidity
$250.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $634.2 in 24h volume, and $3K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$634.2
Liquidity
$3K
This market asks whether Argentina will actually move into dollarization by June 30, 2026, either by making the U.S. dollar official legal tender or by beginning a dollar peg. Argentina has debated currency reform for years, so the question matters because it would mark a major shift in how the country manages prices, debt, and day-to-day transactions.
The event is about a concrete policy change in Argentina, not just rhetoric or a campaign promise. For a “Yes” resolution, dollarization must have begun by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: either Argentina must adopt the U.S. dollar as legal tender or start pegging the peso to the dollar, and the market rules say the peg does not need to be exactly 1:1. The deadline is fixed, and the market resolves from credible reporting showing that one of those arrangements has actually started.
Argentina’s currency policy is a live political and economic issue because dollarization would be a break from the country’s normal monetary system and would affect inflation control, exchange-rate policy, and financial stability. The uncertainty is not just whether leaders favor the idea, but whether the government can implement it in time and in a form that meets the market’s definition. That leaves room for disagreement over both the likelihood and the exact threshold for calling the policy started.
Official announcements from Argentina’s government or central bank, especially anything that sets a start date or confirms a legal change, would be the clearest price-moving developments. Draft legislation, executive decrees, central bank actions tied to a new peg, or reports that a dollar-based system has begun in practice could also matter if they show the policy has crossed the market’s resolution threshold. By contrast, speeches, interviews, or campaign language alone should matter less unless they are followed by implementation.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$513.8K
Liquidity
$250.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check whether Argentina has actually begun dollarization under the market’s rules, not just debated it. The key source of truth is the market’s resolution standard: credible reporting must indicate that either dollarization or a qualifying peg has started before the deadline. The main ambiguity risk is whether a partial reform, a future commitment, or a non-binding announcement counts; by the rules here, it does not unless the policy is already in effect.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $634.2 in 24h volume, and $3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
1.7%
No
98.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+13.8%
24h Vol
$159.1K
Liquidity
$174.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-1.5%
24h Vol
$76.7K
Liquidity
$52.1K
Spread
2%
7/1/2026
View market
+0.2%
24h Vol
$29.5K
Liquidity
$134.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.4%
24h Vol
$17.6K
Liquidity
$34.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market-0.1%
24h Vol
$21.3K
Liquidity
$30.5K
Spread
0%
Live
View market