economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
+0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.1M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $5 in 24h volume, and $1.2K in liquidity.
Probability
61%
24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$1.2K
This market asks a very specific question about Argentina’s inflation: whether the official monthly CPI change for May 2026 will land between 2.2% and 2.4%, inclusive. It is worth watching because Argentina’s monthly inflation releases are a closely followed gauge of price pressure, and this market is tied to one exact government data point rather than a general year-end trend.
The event is the May 2026 monthly variation in Argentina’s Consumer Price Index, reported by INDEC, the country’s National Institute of Statistics and Census. The market resolves from the official INDEC CPI news release for May 2026, under the line labeled “Variación % mensual Total nacional,” and it will use the monthly figure as published, rounded to one decimal place. The scheduled release date is June 11, 2026, and if that report is delayed, the market description says it will fall back to the last available month’s data when the next report is due.
There is uncertainty because the market is not asking whether inflation is high or low in a broad sense; it is asking whether one monthly print will fall inside a narrow band of 2.2% to 2.4%. That matters because small differences around the cutoff change the outcome completely, and monthly CPI figures can land just above or below the range after final compilation by INDEC. Readers who follow Argentina’s macro data may care because this single release is a standard reference point for prices, policy discussion, and comparisons with prior monthly readings.
The price will mainly move as the June 11 INDEC release gets closer and traders weigh the chance that the official May figure prints at 2.2%, 2.3%, or 2.4% versus a number just outside the band. Any market attention around the publication calendar, or confirmation that the CPI report will be released on time, can also affect positioning because the resolution depends on that exact report. Since the market resolves on the official one-decimal monthly CPI figure, the key swing factor is whether the final published number sits inside the stated range after INDEC’s methodology is applied.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$1.1M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 61% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, check the official INDEC CPI release for May 2026 and make sure you are reading the national monthly percentage change, not a year-over-year measure or a region-specific table. The relevant line is “Variación % mensual Total nacional” in the consumer price index report on INDEC’s website, and the market uses the number as published to one decimal place. If the May report is delayed, the description includes a fallback rule tied to the next scheduled monthly release, so readers should verify whether May data was actually published on time and whether any replacement month is being used under the stated rule.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $5 in 24h volume, and $1.2K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 61%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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